Be Informed
Hot Political News
September 1, 2010
In a survey conducted August 23-27 for the Albuquerque Journal by the local Albuquerque opinion research firm Research and Polling Inc., incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-NM-1) led his Republican opponent, Jon Barela (R), in the First Congressional District contest by six percentage points (47-41%). Twelve percent of the respondents were undecided or declined to declare their support for either candidate. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.
The First Congressional District, with it's population center in "Land of Enchantment's" biggest metropolitan area, Albuquerque and its suburbs, is considered to be a swing district, but trended decidedly Democratic in the last election. Prior to Heinrich's 2008 victory Rep. Heather Wilson (R) held the seat. She won a special election to replace Rep. Steve Schiff (R) who died in office back in 1998. Wilson won five re-election campaigns, some only narrowly, before vacating the seat to run unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate.
According to the Journal's survey published earlier this week, Heinrich enjoyed the support of 45 percent of the respondents who consider themselves independents, compared to 31 percent for Barela.
Barela captured the support of 33 percent of the Hispanic voters polled, while Heinrich was backed by 54 percent. Barela's relatively strong showing among Hispanics for a Republican congressional candidate could become an important factor in his efforts to gain the kind of cross-over vote that he might need to win the favor New Mexico Hispanics who tend to support Democratic candidates.
As one might expect, Democrat Heinrich polled better among the younger voters surveyed. Of those polled in the 18 to 34 demographic, 56 percent expressed support for Heinrich, compared with 36 percent for Barela.
By contrast, Barela outpolled Heinrich among the oldest category of voters, ages 65 and older, 46-40%.
This race is turning into one to watch as the election draws closer.
In the Second Congressional District, another Democratic freshman incumbent, Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM-2) is trying to hold off the challenge of former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who is trying to reclaim the House seat he won in 2002 and gave up in 2008 to also run unsuccessfully for the Senate.
In the 2nd district version of the Research and Polling study, Teague held a narrow 45-42% lead over Pearce. Thirteen percent of Second District voters surveyed said they were undecided. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.
The Congressman had the support of 37 percent of voters who described themselves as independent, or who declined to state a political party when they registered to vote. Thirty-three percent of the independents said they would support Pearce. This is a surprising trend since, in most places, the Republican candidate is commanding the larger share of independent voters. The number is even more surprising when considering that NM-2 was drawn as a Republican seat.
In the Journal survey, Teague led Pearce among registered Democrats 76%-12%, while Pearce claimed an 81%-9% advantage among registered Republicans. Ten percent of both Republicans and Democrats said they were still undecided about the race.
Among Hispanic voters in the 2nd District, more of whom are Democrat than Republican, Pearce had 24 percent support, compared with 59 percent support for Teague.
One external factor that may be helping Teague in recent surveys is a large-for- the-district $325,000 anti-Pearce ad buy by the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund.
The Second District was in GOP hands for 28 years prior to Teague's strong showing in the 2008 election. This race will be one to watch as two proven vote getters battle to represent the entire southern portion of the state. With 13 percent still undecided, this race can certainly go either way.
