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Hot Political News
March 10, 2010
Three New Polls; Three Surprising Results
New Senate polls in Florida, Colorado, and Kentucky continue to yield to the possibility of final results that confound the experts original predictions. Released yesterday, the stunning Public Policy Polling survey gave former Florida House Speaker
Marco Rubio an incredible 60-28% lead over Gov. Charlie Crist. The first poll of this campaign, taken back in April by Quinnipiac University projected Crist to a 54-9% advantage.
But it's Rasmussen Reports' Centennial State poll (3/2; 500 likely CO voters)
and Survey USA's data for the Kentucky Senate race (3/1-3; 454 likely GOP and 590 likely Democratic voters) that provide information of even more significant note.
For several months, survey research has been showing that appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has been faring poorly. The more surprising of this Rasmussen finding, however, concerns his Democratic primary challenger, Andrew Romanoff the former Colorado Speaker of the House. Though Bennet trails former Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R) 39-48%, Romanoff performs better against the ex-GOP statewide official. He trails just 42-44%.
Mr. Romanoff also stands stronger against the two lesser known Republican candidates than Sen. Bennet. When grouped with state Sen. Tom Wiens, Bennet trails 40-43%, but Romanoff ties him at 41%. Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck also tops Bennet, but draws virtually even with Romanoff. He leads the incumbent 44-38%, while a Buck/Romanoff contest is separated only by a single point, 41-40%, in the Republican's favor. No Democratic primary questions were asked in this survey, likely because the cell sample was too small to produce meaningful results.
The fact that Bennet trails candidates whose aided name ID barely tops 60% suggests serious electoral weakness. Though the Senator has been effective raising campaign resources ($4.8 million raised by year's end), his ballot test numbers will have to significantly improve, first in the Democratic primary, in order to position himself to win a full term in his own right.
The Survey USA Kentucky data is showing surprising findings in both the Republican and Democratic primary campaigns. Originally, it appeared that Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) were considered the respective favorites to come through the Blue Grass State's May 18th primary, but that perception is changing.
According to the poll, both Republican Dr. Rand Paul, son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, a former presidential candidate, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, the 2004 Democratic Senatorial nominee who held Sen. Jim Bunning to just 51% of the vote, have opened up sizable leads for their respective nominations. Paul is ahead of Grayson 42-27% on the Republican side of the fence, and Mongiardo enjoys a similar 45-27% advantage over Conway among Democrats.
